Uncertainty Surrounding the Cone of Uncertainty

The “Cone of Uncertainty” of software estimation was first defined by Barry Boehm over 25 years ago. The fundamental aspects of the cone are quite intuitive—that project uncertainty decreases as more is discovered during the project. Todd Little takes an in depth look into some of the dynamics of software estimation, and questions some of the more common interpretations of the meaning of the “cone.” Todd presents data from over 100 “for market” projects developed by a market-leading software company and compares this data with other industry published data. Delegates will discover some of the patterns of software estimation accuracy, some of which go against common industry beliefs. Understanding the uncertainty bounds and patterns greatly helps to understand how to manage for the uncertainty. Delegates will take away from this class the following:

• An understanding of “typical” estimation uncertainty
• Suggestions for how to manage for the uncertainty
• A collection of metrics to track and analyze uncertainty