Estimation, Uncertainty, Risk and Commitment

Software projects are well known to have challenges with estimation, uncertainty, risk and over-commitment. Often the most valuable projects carry the most risk. Other industries also encounter risk and generate value by understanding and managing that risk effectively. Todd Little explores some techniques used in a number of risky businesses such as product development, oil and gas exploration, investment banking, medicine, weather forecasting, and gambling. He shares what those industries have done to manage uncertainty. He also presents a number of studies of software development estimations and uncertainties and highlights how software practitioners can learn from better understanding the uncertainties and dynamics. Through this process he introduces techniques and approaches to estimation and risk management including utilizing real options. One of the key elements of real options is understanding commitment. Attendees of this tutorial should take away a better understanding of the challenges of estimation and what software practitioners can do to better manage estimation, risks, and their commitments.